Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.003011 0.003311 0.003631 0.003998 0.004407 0.004852 0.005371
2026-02-08 0.002474 0.002889 0.003363 0.003947 0.004648 0.005468 0.006504
2026-02-15 0.002138 0.002599 0.003150 0.003861 0.004760 0.005869 0.007351
2026-02-22 0.001942 0.002438 0.003053 0.003880 0.004970 0.006375 0.008347
2026-03-01 0.001824 0.002356 0.003037 0.003984 0.005282 0.007023 0.009574
2026-03-08 0.001664 0.002200 0.002906 0.003916 0.005347 0.007332 0.010353
2026-03-15 0.001526 0.002061 0.002781 0.003840 0.005384 0.007594 0.011076
2026-03-22 0.001424 0.001961 0.002701 0.003816 0.005485 0.007948 0.011960
2026-03-29 0.001356 0.001902 0.002671 0.003857 0.005683 0.008455 0.013122
2026-04-05 0.001266 0.001805 0.002579 0.003798 0.005717 0.008709 0.013898
2026-04-12 0.001192 0.001725 0.002505 0.003758 0.005777 0.009002 0.014759
2026-04-19 0.001121 0.001646 0.002426 0.003704 0.005807 0.009246 0.015553
2026-04-26 0.001068 0.001593 0.002388 0.003716 0.005955 0.009714 0.016821
2026-05-03 0.001005 0.001521 0.002315 0.003669 0.006001 0.010016 0.017831
2026-05-10 0.000941 0.001443 0.002228 0.003590 0.005984 0.010202 0.018640
2026-05-17 0.000903 0.001404 0.002200 0.003608 0.006136 0.010701 0.020104
2026-05-24 0.000883 0.001393 0.002218 0.003704 0.006435 0.011496 0.022252
2026-05-31 0.000835 0.001332 0.002148 0.003641 0.006437 0.011730 0.023267
2026-06-07 0.000790 0.001273 0.002077 0.003572 0.006418 0.011918 0.024205
2026-06-14 0.000755 0.001232 0.002034 0.003549 0.006487 0.012283 0.025571
2026-06-21 0.000734 0.001210 0.002025 0.003587 0.006677 0.012911 0.027602
2026-06-28 0.000699 0.001164 0.001968 0.003532 0.006676 0.013141 0.028741
2026-07-05 0.000669 0.001125 0.001923 0.003495 0.006709 0.013445 0.030089